Access the recording of our webinar on the global macro and geopolitical outlook for 2026.

Jo Lock (GICP, Fitch Learning) and Cedric Chehab (BMI) examine the forces likely to shape the macro environment in 2026, including inflation, rates, geopolitics and fiscal policy. The session is relevant for credit investors, analysts and professionals tracking macro risks and market direction.

Key takeaways

• Global growth is expected to remain broadly stable in 2026 supported by fiscal stimulus, monetary easing and continued corporate profitability.
• Geopolitics remains the main macro risk driver: While economic volatility has eased, geopolitical risks, including trade tensions and regional instability, are likely to remain elevated.
• Inflation is easing but remains above target in many markets with tariffs, energy prices and supply factors still relevant.
• Interest rate decisions remain sensitive to inflation and labor markets: Central banks are expected to continue easing, though policy decisions remain sensitive to inflation and labor market developments.
• Credit market conditions reflect high long-end yields and wider issuance, with expectations of some spread widening alongside resilient overall returns.
• Structural shifts are creating a more complex global investment environment and uncertainty for investors.

Watch the recording